Using State-and-Transition Simulation Models to Guide Sustainable Management of Ecosystems: Three Case Studies from Across the US

Sustainable management of natural resources under competing demands is challenging, particularly when facing novel and uncertain future climatic conditions. Meeting this challenge requires considering information about the effects of management, disturbance, land use and climate change on ecosystems. State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a flexible framework for integrating landscape processes and comparing alternative management scenarios, but incorporating climate change is an active area of research. In this presentation, three researchers (Jennifer Costanza from North Carolina State University, Megan Creutzburg from Portland State University, and Brian Miller from Colorado State University) will present work funded by Climate Science Centers across the country to incorporate climate projections into STSMs.